I understand the case for the uniform swing model, but I remain skeptical when applying it to the new map. Based on what I’ve seen, only about 5–6% of House seats are truly in play. Factor in the demographic and partisan "enclaves" baked into many of those districts, and the predictive power of a uniform swing begins to break down—at least when I try to simulate it.
Realistically, Democrats start the night with around 205 safe or favorable seats to Republicans’ 212. To reach 225 or more, they’d need an exceptional night—certainly possible, but far from probable given the structure of the current map. This just isn’t 2010, where you could argue that 12–14% of seats were genuinely competitive.
That said, I appreciated this analysis. It was a thoughtful breakdown, and even if the model oversimplifies, it’s a solid base for debate.
I 100% agree with you. I don't think a uniform swing is all that likely. Plus, the biggest thing holding Democrats back is that they already control most of the competitive seats (21/35 of the seats won by less than +/-5% in 2024).
I'm looking forward to the models Quantus puts out for 2026 though, you guys nailed it last time.
I understand the case for the uniform swing model, but I remain skeptical when applying it to the new map. Based on what I’ve seen, only about 5–6% of House seats are truly in play. Factor in the demographic and partisan "enclaves" baked into many of those districts, and the predictive power of a uniform swing begins to break down—at least when I try to simulate it.
Realistically, Democrats start the night with around 205 safe or favorable seats to Republicans’ 212. To reach 225 or more, they’d need an exceptional night—certainly possible, but far from probable given the structure of the current map. This just isn’t 2010, where you could argue that 12–14% of seats were genuinely competitive.
That said, I appreciated this analysis. It was a thoughtful breakdown, and even if the model oversimplifies, it’s a solid base for debate.
I 100% agree with you. I don't think a uniform swing is all that likely. Plus, the biggest thing holding Democrats back is that they already control most of the competitive seats (21/35 of the seats won by less than +/-5% in 2024).
I'm looking forward to the models Quantus puts out for 2026 though, you guys nailed it last time.